Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is a structured method for exploring and rehearsing possible futures. Developed at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s by Pierre Wack, the technique emerged from the recognition that traditional forecasting failed precisely when it was most needed — during periods of structural uncertainty and rapid change. Scenario planning does not predict the future; it constructs multiple, internally consistent narratives about how the future might unfold, each grounded in a distinct logic of driving forces and critical uncertainties.

A scenario is not a prediction but a wind