Affective forecasting

The affective forecasting literature documents the systematic errors humans make when predicting their future emotional states. We consistently overestimate both the intensity and duration of our emotional reactions to events—a phenomenon known as the impact bias. We also fail to account for our remarkable capacity for emotional adaptation, which causes us to return to a baseline level of happiness far faster than we anticipate. The result is a persistent misalignment between the choices we make (based on predicted affect) and the experiences we actually have.

These errors are not merely individual quirks; they scale to institutional failure. Policymakers, marketers, and designers all rely on affective forecasts—whether explicit or implicit—to shape decisions that affect millions. When the forecasts are systematically wrong, the systems built on them inherit the error. Affect is not merely personal; it is infrastructural.